Organizational and Cultural Criteria for Adversary Modeling (OCCAM)

Modeling "soft" aspects of human behavior

The Situation

With the evolution of warfare over the past decades, intelligence analysts at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the Natick Soldier System Center (NSC) now need tools to help predict the behavior of opposing forces using non-traditional, asymmetric warfare methods in culturally complex environments. The US Department of Defense is exploring increasingly sophisticated behavioral models and simulations for intelligence analysis. However, these models fail to effectively address some of the "soft" representational issues, including modeling the influence of culture on groups and individuals, how organizations can influence individual behavior and vice versa, the quantifiable differences between individuals, and the influence of situational factors on all of these. This already difficult problem of behavior prediction is exacerbated by the general lack of specific data about individuals or groups, and the uncertainty and unreliability of the available information that is inherent to asymmetric warfare.

The Charles River Analytics Solution

To meet these needs, AFRL and NSC sponsored Charles River Analytics' Organizational and Cultural Criteria for Adversary Modeling (OCCAM) project. The focus of the project is on the development of a software-based decision-aid that incorporates organizational and cultural influences on individual and group behavior. A primary strength of the OCCAM decision-aid is the ability to infer additional characteristics of, and linkages among, individuals, groups, and events given sparse data. The OCCAM tool also integrates modern psychological profiling approaches and cultural anthropology methods with traditional social network analysis techniques.

The Benefit

Intelligence analysts using Charles River Analytics' OCCAM decision-aid can now evaluate the impact of social, cultural, organizational, and individual factors on the behavior of an individual or group, leading to improved mission planning and execution. The ability to predict the behavior of an individual adversary or hostile organization results in more effective, safer, and ultimately lower-cost military operations in non-traditional warfare.

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